Macroeconomic Modelling Trainings for Climate Resilient Economic Development in Vietnam
The global programme Policy Advice for Climate Resilient Economic Development (CRED) supports Vietnam in integrating climate risk into macroeconomic modelling to enhance climate resilient economic development. This autumn, the project conducted training sessions in Vietnam to enhance capacities for working with the Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Climate Resilient Economic Development (DGE-CRED). The DGE-CRED model was developed by the programme to assess future climate change impacts on Vietnam’s national economy and identify effective adaptation options. The training course included sessions on climate change scenarios in different sectors. The modelling course was preceded by a preparatory software training (MATLAB and Dynare).
The global programme “Policy Advice for Climate Resilient Economic Development” (CRED) implemented by GIZ on behalf of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) through its International Climate Initiative (IKI), supports the pilot countries Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Vietnam in integrating climate risk into macroeconomic modelling to enhance climate resilient economic development. In Vietnam, the Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) is the political partner, and the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM) is the implementation partner of the CRED project. Within the framework of CRED Vietnam, a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Climate Resilient Economic Development (DGE-CRED) has been developed to assess future impacts of climate change on the economy of Vietnam and identify effective adaptation options using a scenario approach.
Following a first training on the economic model in 2020, a further training course was held in October 2021 to provide participants with basic skills in the MATLAB software and the Dynare platform, which are necessary to run the DGE-CRED model. The training was conducted onsite by two experienced national Matlab experts. This 5-day course attracted about 15 participants from governmental agencies, research institutes such as the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), the Institute of Strategy and Policy for Natural Resources and Environment (ISPONRE), the Vietnam Institute of Economics (VIE), the National Centre for Socio-economic Information and Forecast (NCIF) and the Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development (IPSARD).
The second DGE-CRED modelling course was built on the basis provided by the MATLAB course and took place in November 2021 with a larger group of participants compared to the MATLAB course from Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN). This training course was conducted as a hybrid event with trainers from Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) participating online, while a Vietnamese expert for computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling and the two MATLAB experts were onsite together with the participants. The training included 5 core sessions: (i) Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Climate Resilient Economic Development, Climate Change Scenarios in (ii) Agriculture, (iii) Forestry, (iv) Housing (Construction), and (v) Transport. Overall, the participants significantly improved their knowledge and understanding of CGE modelling and particularly DGE-CRED model simulations. Concurrently, the trainees also contributed important feedback and recommendations for the upcoming DGE-CRED modelling manual and description.
After the MATLAB and DGE-CRED courses, there will be further webinars and exchanges with IWH that focus on extension of sectors and scenarios which are subject to the request of the line ministry. The 3rd training course is scheduled to take place in March 2022 with lots of promising results on sector extension and scenarios analysis.
(Ms.) Chi Kim Dang, National Advisor GIZ Vietnam
Global Programme “Policy Advice for a Climate Resilient Economic Development” (CRED)
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Climate change adaptation, climate resilience, macroeconomic modelling, Vietnam